• What is the difference between a fallacy of relevance, a fallacy of weak induction, and a fallacy of ambiguity?
• Provide at least one example of each, either something that you’ve heard or construct your own.

In addition to your main response, you must also post substantive responses to at least two of your classmates’ posts in this thread.

During World War II, first Japanese and then American forces built airbases in Melanesia – remote islands in the South Pacific. The Melanesians had no prior contact with the outside world – no electricity or mass-produced consumer goods. These huge armies arrive…build airstrips, radar towers and…whoosh…planes land full of food and clothes and radios. All the miracles of modern technology.

Then the war ended and the armies left. And the Melanesians, who had gotten used to all this new stuff, wanted it back. So, what did they do?

They built their own airstrips and radar towers out of reeds. They made airplanes out of bamboo. None of this stuff worked, of course, but it looked like what had been there before. Then they waited for new airplanes to come, loaded with more goodies.

The Melanesians fell victim to a very human way of thinking. They recognized one new event (the creation of the airstrip) and a second new event (the arrival of the supply planes) and they decided that the first event caused the second. On the one hand, that’s clever. But we all know the planes aren’t going to be landing in Melanesia anytime soon (well, they land there now to take people to fancy resorts, but that’s another story). The Melanesians fell victim to a fallacy – a mistake in reasoning where their premises didn’t logically support their conclusion. The particular fallacy on view here is post hoc ergo propter hoc which in English means “after that, therefore because of it” and it gets all of us.

And that’s the real trouble with fallacies. They’ve got a hotline right to our caveman brain and our cognitive biases, and they work. That’s why you’ll see so many fallacies in advertisements and political speech. Our job as critical thinkers is to have a good filter – to identify these fallacies so they can’t work on our decision making. Go hunt for some real life fallacies. Post the examples you find (if you share a youtube video you can use the mashup function to embed it right into your post) and identify and explain the fallacy using the terms from chapters 6 and 7. Once you start looking, you’ll be amazed how common these fallacies really are!

comment 1

A fallacy is a mistake in reasoning. This simply leads an argument unsound or invalid because the supporting details do not really support or prove the argument. Here are three types of fallacies that will be explained: a fallacy of relevance, a fallacy of weak induction, and a fallacy of ambiguity. First, fallacy of relevance, which is also called red herrings, is when a premise is not relevant to its argument. Speakers or writers commits a fallacy of relevance due to many reasons. One reason among them is when a speaker directs an argument at the person instead of at what the other person said. This is called Argumentum Ad Hominem (argument to the person) The following is an example: “My doctor said smoking cigarette can cause lung cancer. I do not think it is true because I saw him smoking the other day.” This person argues that the doctor’s claim is not true by discussing the doctor instead of insisting reasonable premises. Therefore, the premise is not properly relevant to the argument.

Second, fallacy of weak induction is when supporting details are too weak to raise the probability of its conclusions. It occurs when speakers insist a claim by generalizing too few supporting details. This is commonly called Hasty Generalization. For example, a lady insists, “all young boys hate carrots” after seeing a young boy not eating carrots at a restaurant. The lady’s claim is a fallacy because she generalized it from only one case to speak whole group of population. This generalization results the supporting detail weak and inadequate.

Last, fallacy of ambiguity is when an argument is uncertain because its supporting detail includes misused languages, forms, syntax etc. An example of ambiguity fallacy is Amphiboly, which misleading grammatical structures of sentence make the whole argument unclear. Look at the following example: “I like cooking my family and friends.” This example missed a word “for” between ‘cooking” and “my family” and changed the whole sentence scary. This false grammatical structure made the argument and conclusion ambiguous.

comment 2

A fallacy is a mistaken belief, a failure of reasoning or a faulty reasoning, which misleads arguments or base a invalid argument.

Fallacy of relevance is arguments that occur that have law that ae logically irrelevant to the conclusion, but also premises can appear to also be psychologically relevant. Therefore, conclusion can seem to follow from the premises. “The fallacies appeal to evidence or examples that are not relevant to the argument on hand.” Ex: Parents tell children that telling a lie is wrong, but they lie about Santa Claus.

Fallacy of weak induction happens not because of logically irrelevant conclusions but instead. Because the connection between premises and conclusion is not strong enough to support the conclusion. The premises show a little evidence in order to support the conclusion, however it is not good enough to have person believe the conclusion. When the premises is not strong enough in order to support the conclusion. Ex: A mom says that all kids hate vegetables, only because her kids hate vegetables

Fallacy of ambiguity come to light from the use of ambiguous language in the premises or conclusion, or even both. It is a fallacy in which the arguer misinterprets ambiguous statements, and produce a conclusion based on defective interpretation; come from something simple like a mistake in punctuation or grammar. It contains more than one meaning. For example, “ a good life depends on a liver.” This states that a healthy liver will help with living. Ex: A husband calls his wife to say that he can’t pick up the kids and she understood that he can pick up the kids.

Ashford 3: – Week 2 – Assignment

Short Essay – Policy-making in the Federal System
 

The U.S. government’s expansive role in public policy is caught in a swirl of conflicting cross-currents. On the one hand, popular expectations about government’s responsibility to solve problems often exceed the capacity of state and local authorities to respond effectively. On the other hand, policies developed at the national level may not sufficiently reflect the great diversity of interests across the US to be effective at the local level. Moreover, the search for effective policy is further complicated by theoretical debates about the constitutional framework of federalism (e.g., what limits on national power can be derived from the 10th Amendment?).
 

Select a policy issue that is in the middle of these cross-currents between national, state, and local authority. It must be a policy area other than education (the focus of Discussion One in Week Two). Some examples include: federal health care policy (e.g., Obamacare, Medicaid–not Medicare); federal transportation policy (e.g., federal transportation subsidies); federal highway policy (e.g., federal rules about the minimum drinking age, speed limits, or safety); federal urban planning and renewal policy; federal poverty, welfare and unemployment policies; national security policies that intersect/conflict with local police power; and federal disaster planning and relief. These are only examples. The policy area that you select must have a significant federalism component that requires national, state, and local interaction. It should also involve issues with a strong potential for tension or conflict among different levels of government.
 

Research and write an essay on a specific policy in the area that you select. (Note: The word “policy” is used interchangeably with the word “program.”) Your essay must: Clearly identify a specific federal policy (the policy      must raise issues of federalism because it requires national, state, and      local interaction and invites tension across different levels of      government), and summarize the elements of the policy, including the      problem it is supposed to solve or improve.  Summarize the history of the policy. In your summary,      explain how the policy raises issues of federalism.  Analyze the main pros and cons in debates about the      policy.  Evaluate the pros and cons from two perspectives:  The policy’s effectiveness. In your evaluation,       clearly explain your definition of effectiveness and how it should be       measured or determined.  The policy’s consistency with the constitutional       framework of federalism. In your evaluation, clearly explain your       interpretation of American federalism’s constitutional framework and why       the federal policy is or is not consistent with it. 

Follow these requirements when writing the short essay: The body of the essay (excluding the title page and      reference page) must be at least 750 words long.  The essay must start with a short introductory      paragraph which includes a clear thesis statement. The thesis statement      must tell readers what the essay will demonstrate.  The essay must end with a short paragraph which      includes a conclusion. The conclusion and thesis must be consistent.  The essay must logically develop the thesis in a way      that leads to the conclusion, and must be supported by facts, fully      explained concepts or assertions, and persuasive reasoning.  The essay must address all subtopics outlined above. At      least 20% of the essay must focus on subtopic six, listed above (your      evaluation of the various pros and cons about the policy).  Your essay must cite at least one academic article      found in the Ashford Online Library and at least three other kinds of      sources (e.g., Supreme Court opinions, magazine or newspaper articles, the      course textbook, and reliable websites).  Use your own words. While brief quotes from sources may      be used, altogether the total amount of quoted text must be less than five      percent of the body of your essay.  When you use someone else’s words, they must be      enclosed in quotation marks followed by an APA in-text short citation      (author, year, and page) to your source. The in-text citation must      correspond to a full APA citation for the source on the reference page at      the end of the essay.  When you express someone else’s ideas, arguments, or      facts in your own words, your statement must be followed by an APA in-text      short citation (author, year, and page) to your source. The in-text      citation must correspond to a full APA citation for the source in the      reference page.  The form of the title page, the body pages, and the      reference page must comply with APA style. Additionally, the title page      must include the course number and name, the instructor’s name, and the      date submitted.  The essay must use logical paragraph and sentence      transitions, complete and clear sentences, and correct grammar, spelling,      and punctuation. 

For information regarding APA, including samples and tutorials, visit the Ashford Writing Center within the Learning Resources tab on the left navigation toolbar in your online course.
 

The Ashford Writing Center (AWC)  has two kinds of tutoring available to you. Live Chat – If you have writing-related questions about a topic      before you draft a discussion post or submit a written assignment, you      will now be able to chat live with a tutor for a short (up to 20 minute)      conversation. Live Chat will be available Monday through Friday from      10:00-11:00 am and 4:00-5:00 pm (PST). AWC Live Chat Email Paper Review – If you have a draft, partial draft, or even if      you’re having trouble getting started, you can complete a submission form      and email your paper to the AWC for review.  Writing Tutors will do their best to return your paper       with their comments within 48 hours, not including Saturdays and Sundays.       Please plan accordingly if you would like to receive feedback before an       assignment due date. AWC Email Paper Review 

Carefully review the Grading Rubric for the criteria that will be used to evaluate your assignment.
 

Late Policy: Written assignments (essays, journals, presentations) are due on the specified days in the course. Written assignments will be subject to a late penalty of up to 10% per day up to three days late. If written assignments are submitted after 72 hours past the due date, instructors can give a penalty up to and including a grade of 0 for the assignment.

Write an 6-8-page paper on an organization of his or her choice. The submission must be typed, double-spaced, and have uniform 1-inch margins in 12-point Times New Roman font. The organizational analysis will contain the following sections:

• Introduction of the organization, including history and background.
• Organizational strategy.
• Organizational design and your assessment of effectiveness.
• Organizational culture.
• Conclusion and what you would change about the selected organization for improvement.

The plea bargain process is an integral part of the American criminal justice system. More than 90% of criminal cases are settled by plea bargain.

Plea bargains impact the system in many lesser-known ways, both positively and negatively. In a 4- to 5-page report in a Microsoft Word document, cover the following points:

• Explain the plea bargain process.
• What are the reasons why a prosecutor would agree to a plea bargain? Why not just go to trial?
• Why might the police officers that investigated the defendant be in favor of a plea bargain? Why might they be opposed?
• Why might the victim be in favor of a plea bargain? Why might he be opposed?
• Some might say that a plea bargain re-defines the defendant’s criminal behavior. For instance, a defendant who was charged with attempted murder might agree to plead guilty to a reduced charge of aggravated assault. Aside from the lesser penalty, in what other ways might the defendant benefit from this re-definition of his behavior?
• One of the arguments against plea bargaining is that when a defendant pleads guilty, the court does not have the opportunity to scrutinize the police investigation in the case. Explain what is meant by this, and why it is important. (Hint: because a plea-bargained case will not proceed to trial, there will not be a discovery process).

Support your responses with examples.

Cite any sources in APA format.