cenario:

You are deciding among three investments, as you do for Case 4. You

have heard of an expert who has a highly reliable “track record” in the

correct identification of favorable vs. unfavorable market conditions.

You are now considering whether to consult this “expert.” Therefore, you

need to determine whether it would be worth paying the expert’s fee to

get his prediction. You recognize that you need to do further analysis

to determine the value of the information that the expert might provide.

In order to simplify the analysis, you have decided to look at two possible outcomes for each alternative (instead of three). You are interested in whether the market will be Favorable or Unfavorable, so you have collapsed the Medium and Low outcomes. Here are the three alternatives with their respective payoffs and probabilities.

Option A: Real estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the payoffs and probabilities:

High/Favorable NPV: $7.5 million, Pr = 0.5

Unfavorable NPV: $2.0 million, Pr = 0.5

Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique-type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than Option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the NPV of the payoffs and probabilities.

High/Favorable NPV: $4.5 million, Pr = 0.75

Unfavorable NPV: $2.5 million, Pr = 0.25

Option C: High Yield Municipal Bonds. This option has low risk and is assumed to be a Certainty. So there is only one outcome with probability of 1.0:

NPV: $2.25 million, Pr = 1.0

You have contacted the expert and received a letter stating his track record which you have checked out using several resources. Here is his stated track record:

	True State of the Market
Expert Prediction	Favorable	Unfavorable
Predicts “Favorable”	.9	.3
Predicts “Unfavorable”	.1	.7

You realize that this situation is a bit complicated since it requires the expert to analyze and predict the state of two different markets: the real estate market and the retail hat market. You think through the issues of probabilities and how to calculate the joint probabilities of both markets going up, both going down, or one up and the other down. Based on your original estimates of success, here are your calculations of the single probabilities and joint probabilities of the markets.

Probabilities	Favorable	Unfavorable
A: Real Estate	0.50	0.50
B: Just Hats	0.75	0.25

Joint Probabilities
A Fav, B Fav (A+, B+)	0.375
A Unf, B Unf (A-, B-)	0.125
A Fav, B Unf (A+, B-)	0.125
A Unf, B Fav (A-, B+)	0.375

Finally, after a great deal of analysis and calculation, you have determined the Posterior probabilities of Favorable and Unfavorable Markets for the Real Estate business and the boutique hat business.

		Real Estate		Just Hats
		F	U	F	U
0.45	says “F/F”	0.75	0.25	0.90	0.10
0.15	says “F/U”	0.75	0.25	0.30	0.70
0.30	says “U/F”	0.125	0.875	0.90	0.10
0.10	says “U/U”	0.125	0.875	0.30	0.70

For example, this table says that there is 45% chance that the expert will predict Favorable for both markets (F/F), and when he makes this prediction, there is a 75% chance that the Real Estate market will be favorable and 25% chance that it won’t, and also a 90% chance that the Hat market will be Favorable and 10% chance it won’t.

You have developed a Decision Tree showing the original collapsed solution and also showing an expanded Decision Tree for evaluating the value of the expert’s information. You need to enter the probabilities into this tree to see if the expert’s information will increase the overall expected value of your decision. Download the Excel file with the incomplete Decision Tree: Decision Tree for BUS520 SLP 4

Assignment

Complete the information in the Decision Tree in the Excel file. Determine the Expected NPV of the decision if you were to consult the Expert. Does use of the Expert increase the value of your analysis? If so, by how much?

Develop a PowerPoint presentation to your private investment company and explain your analysis and your recommendation. Provide clear rationale/ justification for your decision. Use audio/video feature in PowerPoint to present each slide. Be sure to check the Oral Communication Rubric (under Assessments>Rubrics) to understand the requirements for the PowerPoint presentation.

Upload both your PowerPoint presentation and Excel file with the Decision Tree analysis to the SLP 4 Dropbox.

SLP Assignment Expectations

Analysis

Conduct accurate and complete analysis in Excel. Check the following link on PowerPoint presentation:

https://support.office.com/en-US/article/PowerPoin…

Required:

• Meet Length requirements: 10-15 slides (not including Cover and Reference pages).
• Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.
• Show analysis that supports Excel analysis and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
• Offer meaningful and accurate recommendation(s).
• Oral presentation of each slide should use video/audio feature in PowerPoint

What are special purpose and general or multipurpose classifications systems

Select one of the following as the focus for the teaching plan:

1. Primary Prevention/Health Promotion
2. Secondary Prevention/Screenings for a Vulnerable Population
3. Bioterrorism/Disaster
4. Environmental Issues

Complete the “Community Teaching Work Plan Proposal.” This will help you organize your plan and create an outline for the written assignment.

1. After completing the teaching proposal, review the teaching plan with a community health and public health provider in your local community.
2. Request feedback (strengths and opportunities for improvement) from the provider.
3. Complete the “Community Teaching Experience” form.Select one of the following as the focus for the teaching plan:
   1. Primary Prevention/Health Promotion
   2. Secondary Prevention/Screenings for a Vulnerable Population
   3. Bioterrorism/Disaster
   4. Environmental Issues

   Prepare a presentation to accompany the teaching plan and present the information to your community. Select one of the following options for delivery of the presentation:

   1. PowerPoint presentation – no more than 30 minutes
   2. Pamphlet presentation – 1 to 2 pages

   Appropriate community settings include:

   • Public health clinic
   • Community health center
   • Long-term care facility
   • Transitional care facility
   • Home health center
   • University/School health center
   • Church community
   • Adult/Child care center

   Before presenting information to the community, seek approval from an agency administrator or representative.Upon receiving approval from the agency, include the “Community Teaching Experience Form” as part of your assignment submission

4. In 1,500-2,000 words, describe the teaching experience and discuss your observations. The written portion of this assignment should include:
   1. Summary of teaching plan
   2. Epidemiological rationale for topic
   3. Evaluation of teaching experience
   4. Community response to teaching
   5. Areas of strengths and areas of improvement

   Prepare this assignment according to the APA guidelines found in the APA Style Guide,

In the News-Sociological Impact on Crime Juvenile deliquency

Research and select an event in the last two years related to a juvenile delinquency. Provide a link to the article. Identify the sociological causative factors of the juvenile delinquency. Describe the principles of the theories of social learning in relation to social control and neutralization as it is reflected in your article.2-3 paragraphs

respond to other students post:(50 words each)

1)BRIANA- I believe James Holmes deserves life sentences, from the moment he planned out the attack, to buying the weapon and, entering in the movie theater with it. If a person is suffering from a mental illness, how could they have consciously planned out an attack to harm people. As I have stated in previous discussions, from kids we are taught right from wrong, and know that killing someone is wrong. My question would be, how would a person who suffers from mental illness buy guns, bullets and, grenades? To bring up another point, there are different mental illnesses, which they all do not include insanity. If there had been problems from childhood with mental illness, why were there never any interventions? James carefully planned out his execution and was fully aware that he was killing people. He has taken people away from their loved ones and damaged a lot of families. He deserves the life sentences he receives, maybe even the death penalty.

2)Claudio- James Holmes knew what he was doing, an act of this magnitude took a lot of planning and was premeditated. The evidence shows that although James Holmes was mentally ill, and under treatment he knew the difference between what is right and wrong as he told his doctor. It can not be argued that it was a mental breakdown type of event. Mr Holmes has previously talked about his desire to kill people yet knew it was not the right thing to do. The days leading to the event he had to plan everything out, checking out his target, buying ammunition, and even planning on a way to get in to the theater with his weapons. The acts committed by James Holmes have destroyed and brought grief to number of families and took peoples lives away with no regard. James hold should be held liable for his actions, and be convicted to the maximum allowed penalty for each and every life he took that day.

using your own word and idea to write this case analysis